Buccaneers Should Have Better Super Bowl Odds Than Chiefs

Photo: Patrick Smith

Jonas Knox: "It really has been the perfect offseason as far as potential landmines for a defending champion going in to the year."
RJ Bell: "I agree. And that's why it makes it all the more surprising, befuddling, irrational that the Kansas City Chiefs are clearly the Super Bowl favorites. I totally understand that right now Patrick Mahomes is better than Tom Brady. And Mahomes isn't that much of an upgrade. Last year, Tom Brady was a top-5 quarterback. So Mahomes is 1 and Brady is 4, let's say. The receivers are generally equal, on defense it's a top-5 defense (TB) vs. a below average defense (KC). Kansas City remade their offensive line, and it might be good but there's big uncertainty there. This is an example, in my opinion, of the analytics guys that are really respected that carry a lot of weight, and they love Kansas City in general. The bettors hear it, and they don't want to 'sound stupid.' What I can promise you is this: the Super Bowl betting pool is a square pool, meaning there is a lot of recreational bettors. To whatever degree you think Kansas City is better than Tampa, that's a sharp opinion, meaning you would have to look at it from some weird angles. The obvious answer is Tampa Bay, the defending champions with the greatest quarterback of all time, are better than the team they beat. And the fact that even in a square pool Kansas City is favored, it shows a love for Kansas City that I think is borderline irrational."

RJ Bell and the Straight Outta Vegas crew react to a perfect offseason from the defending champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers. For this reason, RJ struggles to understand why the Kansas City Chiefs are seen as the Super Bowl favorites entering the season. RJ and the guys compare the two teams and look at their additions and subtractions since last meeting in February and conclude that bettors and sportsbooks alike are overvaluing analytic data when giving the Chiefs greater odds than the Buccaneers to win the Super Bowl.