Packers-Saints Week 1 Line Adjustment Not Large Enough


Photo: Chris Graythen

RJ Bell: "The Packers, the better team, in New Orleans were initially favored by 3. Now, they're favored by 4 with the game in Jacksonville, a neutral site. But the line jump is worth 2.5 points. And you may say 'well RJ, how can you say it's worth 2.5 when it went from 3 to 4?' Remember key numbers in the NFL. 3 is the most key number, it's worth about 20 cents. Which means it's about 1.5 points. So the half point from 3 to 3.5 is worth about 1.5 points. Now we will go from 3.5 to 4 as a half a point, and there's some 4.5's out there. So what we're saying is that the adjustment is between 2 and 2.5. That still feels a little light to me, because New Orleans is one of the better home-fields. But that is the market speaking. So maybe my 2.5 is a smidge high in general, but we're seeing very clearly key numbers and the value of home-field advantage."


RJ Bell and the Straight Outta Vegas crew react to a major line adjustment in Week 1 of the NFL season, after it was announced that the Green Bay Packers vs. New Orleans Saints matchup will be moved to Jacksonville in light of Hurricane Ida severely impacting Louisiana. RJ explains why he believes Vegas markets are not adjusting enough to the relocation of the game and explains the significance of home-field advantage when handicapping and betting the NFL.