Are the Bears Better Than Vegas Values Them?


Photo: Ethan Miller

On today’s “Straight Outta Vegas with RJ Bell,” RJ and AJ Hoffman discuss this weekend’s upcoming Bears vs Packers game. The historic rivals will clash once again, with the Packers looking to build off some close victories this season, and the Bears looking to improve in Justin Fields’ 3rd career start. Although the Packers are favored in this matchup, RJ believes the Bears could be better than Vegas gives them credit for.

RJ Bell: “Vegas favors the Packers by 4.5 in this game, but I did a little numbers bending, and I think the Bears are actually better than people are giving them credit for. If you look at EPA, which is a stat that factors into QBR, you can eliminate plays in garbage time. I believe the best teams play their best when the games are tight. The team that varies the most during these moments is the Chicago Bears. According to this stat, the Bears are 3.5 points better per game during the game’s tightest moments. So if the Bears played as well as they do for that time, throughout the entire game, they would statistically be the 3rd best team in the NFL.”