Cincinnati Has a Great Chance to Crash the College Football Playoff


Photo: Andy Lyons

RJ Bell: "I believe Cincinnati has real value. So what is the chance that Cincinnati wins out? We did the math of it. They play SMU as a 14.5-point favorite. They play East Carolina as a 14-point favorite. Then University of Houston, AJ has a 6-point favorite for Cincinnati. That means there is a 45% chance if you add it up: 81%, 85%, 66% converted from the spread, 45% chance they win out. Now, if you look at their payout, Cincinnati to make the playoffs is +250. You can even get better than that if you shop hard, but +250 is readily available, it's the fair number. Oklahoma's fair number is 3:1. If they go undefeated 45% of the time, but you get paid at +250 like it's only 29%, well lo and behold it's saying about a third of the time that Cincinnati goes undefeated, they wouldn't make it. That feels wrong to me. I'm going to make this a Best Bet - Cincinnati +250 to make the playoffs. The rationale is simple - they have about a 45% chance to win out, the payout implies a 29% chance, and I believe the only scenario that they don't make it is a slim one, so it's a good bet in my opinion."


RJ Bell and AJ Hoffman discuss the latest College Football Playoff rankings. The guys debate Cincinnati's place in the rankings and playoff odds, and dive into why they believe the Bearcats are a great bet to make the Playoff, if they can win out to finish the regular season.