Blazin' 5: Colin Cowherd Gives His Five Best NFL Bets For Week 4 (October 4th)
(VIDEO SEGMENT AT BOTTOM OF PAGE)
Last Week's Blazin' 5 record: 4-1
2020 Blazin' 5 record: 8-7
Browns at Cowboys (SPREAD: DAL -5.5)
“I’ll take Dallas -5.5. First, Dak Prescott against really good competition – Rams and the Seahawks – put up good numbers this year. He’s always been a good home quarterback. Since the beginning of last year his quarterback rating at home was 101.8. Their offense right now is number one in the league. But this is about the Browns defense. It’s allowed seven touchdown passes of 10+ Air Yards this year, most in the NFL. I think there are a lot of points in this game, and I don’t know if Cleveland can keep up because they’re more of a running team. Cleveland’s backend worries me. And what do we know about Cleveland? They beat Cincinnati with a rookie quarterback, and Washington with ‘kind of’ a rookie quarterback if you consider starts. How good are they? This is a major step up in competition for Cleveland. For Dallas, they went to Seattle and got down to the last play versus the Seahawks, and went down to Los Angeles and a pass interference call was the only difference losing to the Rams. I think Dallas is the better team and there’s going to be a lot of points. I’ll easily swallow the -5.5, Cowboys win 33-26.”
Colin's pick: Dallas -5.5
Colts at Bears (SPREAD: INDY -2.5)
“Like it? I LOVE IT! Bears getting points at home and I think they’re the better team. I think Matt Nagy wanted to start Nick Foles three weeks ago but the GM wouldn’t let him. Matt Nagy gets his quarterback -- Nick Foles likes to let it rip, has got a big arm, big games, and this is the coach’s kid. He wanted this guy and went out and got him in the offseason. How good are the Colts? They lost to the Jaguars, and beat the crappy Vikings, and the really crappy Jets. Good O-Line, old quarterback. I worry because the Bears defense is number two in the league in getting offenses off the field on third down. In this one I get a clever coach who finally has his quarterback, I get points, and I’m at home. I like the Foles magic to continue, 24-23, Bears over the Colts.”
Colin's pick: Chicago +2.5
Seahawks at Dolphins (SPREAD: SEA -6)
“My favorite pick of the week, I love Miami +6. Russell Wilson may save the day but here’s why. Miami gets three days of extra prep time because they were on Thursday Night Football. That is HUGE because I think it’s a very good coaching staff, and staffs that are good take advantage of it. Seattle has the furthest trip that you can make in America after being in wildly dramatic wins over Dallas and New England. Ryan Fitzpatrick is very good when he’s comfortable and Seattle makes EVERY quarterback comfortable because they have no pass rush. The Dolphins are also playing CLEAN football, one of only two teams in the NFL who has not had a turnover in two weeks, Green Bay is the other. The Dolphins defense can get after you, and the Seahawks offensive line is a mess. I think Russell Wilson may come in and save the day late, but in warm and sticky weather, and a long trip for Seattle, I will take the 6 points, Seattle wins 27-26.”
Colin's pick: Miami +6
Chargers at Bucs (SPREAD: TB -7)
“This is a lot of points, I’ll take Tom Brady and the Bucs -7. This game is about ‘comfort’ vs. ‘discomfort.’ Tom Brady against the Chargers defense that is without Ingram and Derwin James – they don’t take the ball away since the beginning of last year. Derwin James is their best defensive player so you don’t have two studs for them, which means Tom Brady getting more comfortable, and at home is more comfortable. Meanwhile, Justin Herbert will face a defense for Tampa that gets a pass rush with only four, and the first or second best linebacking corps. You cannot run on the Bucs defense. They are number two in fewest yards per-play allowed in the NFL with 4.5 yards per play, that is it. Justin Herbert gets yards but has struggled in the red zone with the Chargers settling for field goals. He will be uncomfortable all day. I believe Todd Bowles is the best current coordinator in the NFL, and I think Tampa has the first or second best linebacking corps. The Chargers are one of only three teams to have scored 20 or less in every game. Brady is going to be comfortable and Justin Herbert is going to be uncomfortable. It’s the defense of Tampa that will decide the game, NOT the offense. It’s the defense that will shut down and create turnovers for a short field. I’ll take Tampa, 33-23."
Colin's pick: Tampa Bay -7
Bills at Raiders (SPREAD: BUF -3)
“This is an easy one, I’ll take Buffalo -3. There is no home-field advantage anymore so it’s basically a neutral field. I get the better quarterback, the better coach, and the significantly better defense. There are a lot of people who think Buffalo is a top 4 team in this league, and a lot of coaches are really on Buffalo. Their offense is number two in passing and took a huge leap the last two years with Josh Allen’s emergence. This is now an elite offense, and the Raiders run defense is 30th, they can't get you off the field. Maybe if it’s the second home game in Vegas and it’s a wild crowd it’s different, but this is almost a neutral field, and this is a Buffalo team who is well-coached, and will force the Raiders to play real defense because they press the ball down the field. Buffalo wins this game 32-27. I think it could get worse than this, but it’s AT LEAST this.”
Colin's pick. Buffalo -3
***All point spreads are provided by Fox Bet, and Colin locks in his bets with the current spread at that very time on Friday at 12:00 pm ET/9:00 am PT